On the absurd limitations of climate models.
This is a really fantastic post explaining the constraints that climate models operate under and why their predictive power is poor.
Well worth reading and pretty accessible really.
Money quote:
The climate system is chaotic which essentially means any model will be a poor predictor of the future – you can’t even make a model of a lottery ball machine (which is a comparatively a much simpler and smaller interacting system) and use it to predict the outcome of the next draw.
The Dirty Secrets inside the Black Box Climate Models
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
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